Back in the 1990's when the economy was booming and it seemed like the sky was the limit I warned you that the bubble would burst and there was going to be a massive downturn in the economy. When I told you about this many of you thought that I did not have the vaguest clue about what I was talking about. Now that we are in the third year of the economic downturn many are beginning to wonder when the bottom of the economic slide will be.

People have a very poor conception about how history repeats itself and about saving for the inevitable bad times. I was not around in the 1920's, but I know people that were growing up during the roaring 20's. The attitude then was the same as the attitude during the 1990's where everyone thought that there was no end for the bull market.

Dow Jones Chart from 1929 to the present.

A look at the stock market with a long range perspective from 1929 to the present is very interesting. You can see that the stock market was very slow in recovery from the crash of 1929.

The people in the 1920's and in the 1990's had the same mentality thinking that the bubble would never burst. But when you blow up a baloon eventually the baloon will burst the same as the stockmarket. We are now in a resession with many companies announcing layoffs along with reorganization. With more people fearing layoffs, and more people tightening their belt companies will be compelled to layoff more. We are seeing the same news that was being published in the early 1930 stating that the economy will turn around at any time now. There are some who are making the comparison between the 1930's and the present like in The Mercury News article, "Coincidence? Market starting to resemble the '30s."

The Bible states that there is nothing new under the sun and what has been will be.

Ecclesiastes 1:1-11

1 The words of the Preacher, the son of David, king in Jerusalem.
2 Vanity of vanities, saith the Preacher, vanity of vanities; all is vanity.
3 What profit hath a man of all his labour which he taketh under the sun?
4 One generation passeth away, and another generation cometh: but the earth abideth for ever.
5 The sun also ariseth, and the sun goeth down, and hasteth to his place where he arose.
6 The wind goeth toward the south, and turneth about unto the north; it whirleth about continually, and the wind returneth again according to his circuits.
7 All the rivers run into the sea; yet the sea is not full; unto the place from whence the rivers come, thither they return again.
8 All things are full of labour; man cannot utter it: the eye is not satisfied with seeing, nor the ear filled with hearing.
9 The thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done: and there is no new thing under the sun.
10 Is there any thing whereof it may be said, See, this is new? it hath been already of old time, which was before us.
11 There is no remembrance of former things; neither shall there be any remembrance of things that are to come with those that shall come after.

King Solomon knew that people have very poor memories when it comes to history recurring. Men always want to say that these times are different, or the situation is different, but in reality, there is nothing new under the sun, only the memory of the past has vanished.

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Copyright © 2002 LeRoy D. Cressy
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